Voters Who Are Skipping Over Races Could Be Skewing the Results of the Contested Down-Ballot Matchups for Harris County, Texas
AUBREY R. TAYLOR REPORTS©
Skipping over down-ballot races isn’t anything new! It happens all the time. However, voters in Harris County, Texas who are skipping over down-ballot races this time around could be putting the contested down-ballot countywide races in play on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. Believe it or not, few folks are aware of the fact that 69,344 voters in Harris County, Texas skipped right over the down-ballot race for District Judge, 337th Civil District Court as they scrolled down their ballot back during the Tuesday, November 8, 2016, Presidential Election. Comparatively speaking, only 26,622 voters in Harris County, Texas skipped over the Presidential race. So, if 69,344 voters in Harris County, Texas skipped right over the down-ballot race for District Judge, 337th Civil District Court back in 2016, with straight-ticket voting being an option, we could be on the verge of seeing a range anywhere from 100,000 to 200,000 voters skipping over down-ballot races in this 2020 Presidential Election – whereas Harris County, Texas is concerned. Now, if my prediction is correct, this won’t impact the race for President of the United States between President Donald J. Trump and Senator Joe Biden in Harris County, Texas as much as it could skew the results of the down-ballot races on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. So, to stave this off, I am encouraging everyone who is reading this report to become engaged by calling up the people you know who may not have voted yet, and reminding them to “DO NOT SKIP OVER DOWN-BALLOT RACES” on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. Or, better yet, it wouldn't be a bad idea to call up your local political party and get involved with their voter outreach program today! In case you don’t know, the Harris County Democratic Party can be reached at (713)802-0085 – if you want to get involved by volunteering to help your down-ballot Democratic candidates win on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. And the Harris County Republican Party can be reached at (713)838-7900 – if you want to get involved with helping your down-ballot Republican candidates take back Harris County, Texas on Tuesday, November 3, 2020.
Harris County Should Brace for 100,000 to Possibly Even 200,000 Undervotes in Some 2020 Contested down-ballot Races
AUBREY R. TAYLOR REPORTS©
These huge Presidential Election turnout numbers we’re currently seeing posted in Harris County, Texas have typically favored Democratic candidates running countywide. However, there’s something unique happening right now that a lot of folks could be overlooking. What am I talking about? I’m about to tell you if you hold your horses. But look, I’m not going to go through all of the past Presidential Election cycles, but will instead focus my attention on what happened in Harris County, Texas during the 2016 Presidential Election. However, please remember that in a traditional sense, lower voter turnout numbers have tended to favor Republican countywide candidates, and higher voter turnout numbers have tended to favor Democratic countywide candidates as far as Harris County, Texas is concerned. Now, with that said, you have to keep in mind, that this 2020 Presidential Election is the very first time that we are seeing an election take place in Texas where the straight-ticket voting option isn’t available for Texas voters. So, since this is a fact, I can tell you with full assurance that, none of these political pundits who are running their mouths knows with exact certainty which countywide candidates are ahead right now.
A glimpse back at the Tuesday, November 8, 2016, Presidential Election Whereas Harris County, Texas Was Concerned
AUBREY R. TAYLOR REPORTS©
The 2016 Presidential Election that took place back on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, and featured Donald J. Trump and Mike Pence (Republicans), versus Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine (Democrats) was a lopsided affair as far as Harris County, Texas was concerned. As a refresher, the Clinton/Kaine ticket received 707,914 overall votes in Harris County, Texas. Of the 707,914 total votes they received, a total of 472,030 of their overall vote total came by way of straight-ticket voting. So, in essence, only 235,884 voters cast their vote specifically for the Clinton/Kaine ticket in Harris County, Texas back in 2016. Comparatively speaking, the Trump/Pence ticket only received a total of 545,955 overall votes in Harris County, Texas back in 2016. Of the 545,955 total votes they received, a total of 401,663 of their overall vote total came by way of straight-ticket voting. So, after it was all said and done, only 144,292 voters cast their vote specifically for the Trump/Pence ticket in Harris County, Texas back in 2016.
Not Having Straight-Ticket Voting as an Option Will Definitely Impact Certain Down-Ballot Races in a Couple Different Ways
AUBREY R. TAYLOR REPORTS©
Make no mistake about it, the Presidential race is the race that draws people to the polls – let’s get that straight right now. So, more often than not, voters don’t even know the names of many of the down-ballot candidates. That’s why you see far fewer voters skipping over the Presidential race versus what happens as voters start to scroll down their ballot. And get this, the further the scroll down their ballot, the more races the start to skip over. For instance, back in 2016, 1,338,898 total votes were cast in Harris County, Texas, according to the Harris County Clerk’s Office. Of the 1,338,898 votes cast, a total of 1,312,112 votes were cast in the race for President. What does this mean? Well, in simple terms, after you subtract the “OVER VOTES” and “UNDER VOTES” only 26,622 voters skipped over the Presidential race. What’s the problem? Well, as I’ve said many times before, voters don’t take as much interest in the down-ballot races as they do races at the top of the ticket. For instance, the first local “DISTRICT JUDICIAL RACE” that appeared on the ballot for Harris County, Texas back in 2016, was the race for Judge, 11th Civil District Court between Kevin Fulton (Republican), and Kristen Hawkins (Democrat). Only 1,271,529 votes were cast in the race for Judge, 11th Civil District Court. What does this mean? Well, what this means is that, as voters scrolled down their ballot looking at the down-ballot races, 63,237 of them, decided not to cast a ballot at all in the race for Judge, 11th Civil District Court between Kevin Fulton and Kristen Hawkins. Comparatively speaking, don’t forget that only 26,622 voters skipped over the 2016 Presidential race in Harris County, Texas. And by the time these voters had navigated their way through some of the other down-ballot District Court races as many as 69,344 of them were skipping over the down-ballot judicial races altogether.
Undervotes Could Put Some down-ballot Harris County, Texas Races in Play on Tuesday, November 3, 2020
AUBREY R. TAYLOR REPORTS©
What is an undervote? In simple terms, an undervote simply means that the number of choices selected by a voter in a race that’s contested is less than the maximum number of choices allowed for that particular race. However, in most cases, when I’m talking about undervotes, I’m talking about contested races where the voter skipped over the race, or in other words, didn’t cast a vote for either candidate in a contested race. That being said, voters skipping over races is going to be a big problem for both major political parties whereas their down-ballot candidates are concerned. Remember, I’ve already told you that back in 2016, only 26,622 voters skipped over the Presidential race, and as many as 69,344 of them skipped over some of the down-ballot races. But what’s significant about this is the fact that back in 2016, these numbers were registered with straight-ticket voting being an option. This time around, straight-ticket voting isn’t an option. So, if you look back at what happened in the race for District Judge, 337th Civil District Court between one of my Republican clients at the time, Renee Magee, who was the sitting judge being challenged by Herb Ritchie a Democrat, you can see how she closed the gap on him after being placed at a huge deficit in the straight-ticket voting category. Remember, Herb Ritchie, and all of his other fellow Democratic compadres enjoyed a 70,367 headstart because more Democrats voted a straight-ticket back in 2016. In case you don’t remember, 472,030 Democratic voters cast their vote by way of straight-ticket voting back in the 2016 Presidential Election, whereas Harris County, Texas was concerned. Comparatively speaking, only 401,663 Republican voters cast their vote by way of straight-ticket voting back in 2016. Why is this significant? Well, this race is significant because Renee Magee beat Herb Ritchie in the “ABSENTEE BALLOT CATEGORY” back in 2016. In case you don’t remember Renee Magee received 47,485 votes, by way of “ABSENTEE BALLOT” back in 2016. And comparatively speaking, Herb Ritchie only received 46,324 votes, by way of “ABSENTEE BALLOT” back in 2016. Also, please keep in mind that after receiving a 70,367 vote advantage in the straight-ticket voting category, Herb Ritchie only beat Renee Magee by a total of 23,577 votes back in 2016. So, in essence, the 23,577 votes that Herb Ritchie defeated Renee Magee by fell well within the undervote range of 69,344 voters who skipped over this particular race back in 2016. What does this mean? Well, it means that even after suffering a 70,367 vote deficit, because of straight-ticket voting, the race for District Judge, 337th Civil District Court was still in play.
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